The interesting figures here are derived from that 2011 announcement – Apple, by their own figures, went from 1.4 million users of FCP 1-6 to “over 2 million” users of FCP 1-7 – that’s a growth of at least 600,000 users of Final Cut 7 in about a year and a half – gaining users at more than 400,000 per year. That rate of adoption fed the optimism (or hubris) of the FCP X announcement: “What we’re doing is we’re growing that base faster than ever before.”, “Where does that leave Adobe and Avid? They like to believe they’re competing with us. The truth is, they’re in a race for second place.” (Richard Townhill (unconfirmed) from the recordings above.)
But the recent growth curve on X seems to be counter to those hopes – something around 200,000 new users for each of the past two years. Thus far – by the numbers – it seems to be a contrast to the promise of FCP7 numbers, and a decline in new users since the year of introduction. (I’ve remarked elsewhere that this is particularly remarkable in the context of the number of macs sold in each “era”).